Publications by Type: Journal Article

In Press
Libgober B, Carpenter D. Lawyers as Lobbyists: Regulatory Advocacy in American Finance. Perspectives on Politics. In Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Administrative agencies have undertaken an increasingly substantial role in policymaking. Yet the influence-seeking that targets these agencies remains poorly understood. Reporting exceptions under the Lobbying Disclosure Act allow many of the most powerful advocates to characterize their activity as lawyering, not lobbying, and thereby fly under the radar. Using agency-generated records on lobbying activity, financial reporting, and personnel databases specific to lawyers, as well as LinkedIn, we describe a vast subterranean world of regulatory influence-seeking that the social-science literature has (mostly) ignored. Regulatory lobbying is systematically different from legislative lobbying. It involves different kinds of people and different lobbying firms that bring specific forms of expertise and distinct networks. Our key findings about how regulatory lobbying differs include the following: (1) the regulatory lobbying sector is highly segregated from the reported lobbying sector, with many regulatory advocates failing to consistently register or report earnings commensurate with their activity level, (2) the number of unregistered regulatory advocates working on the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act plausibly exceeds 150% of the registered lobbyists working on that law, (3) the most effective regulatory lobbyists and law firms involved with regulatory lobbying have incomes that dramatically outpace leading reported lobbying firms (which are also mostly law firms), and (4) back-of-the-envelope calculations and more sophisticated decomposition regressions imply that aggregate expenditure on lawyer-lobbying is several multiples of reported lobbying spending. We introduce the case of a particular lawyer-lobbyist and provide a theoretical discussion to situate and contextualize these findings. Collectively, this work opens a window into neglected domains of politics and reveals an important and understudied form of political inequality.

lawyers-as-lobbyists-regulatory-advocacy-in-american-finance_copy.pdf
2023
Rand LZ, Carpenter D, Kesselheim AS, Bhaskar A, Darrow JJ, Feldman WB. Securing the Trustworthiness of the FDA to Build Public Trust in Vaccines. The Hastings Center report. 2023;53 (S2) :S60-S68. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the need to examine public trust in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) vaccine approval process and the role of political influence in the FDA’s decisions. Ensuring that the FDA is itself trustworthy is important for justifying public trust in its actions, like vaccine approvals, thereby promoting public health. We propose five conditions of trustworthiness that the FDA should meet when it reviews vaccines, even during emergencies: consistency with rules, proper expert or political decision-makers, proper decision-making and noninterference, connection to public preference, and transparency of both reasons and procedures. The five conditions provide a roadmap of procedural and substantive requirements, which the FDA has variably implemented, focused on ensuring appropriate influence of political interests. While being a trustworthy agency cannot guarantee the public’s trust, implementing these conditions build a groundwork for public trust.

securing_the_trustworthiness_of_the_fda_to_build_public_trust_in_vaccines_-_abstract.pdf
Carpenter D. Just How Much of History is Countable?. Political Science Quarterly. 2023.Abstract
How can historical perspective be brought to the quantitative social sciences? The question has proven immensely popular, but answers that deal squarely with historical context and narrative remain elusive. An important recent book by Gregory Wawro and Ira Katznelson—Time Counts—provides an important new direction and a kit of useable tools. Using Wawro and Katznelson's approach and methods puts social scientists in a better position to appreciate the historicity of their data and to avoid common errors in statistical execution and inference. Time Counts also raises questions every bit as vital as those it answers, especially when it comes to the boundaries between narrative and quantitative work. An important concern is that inference from a particular historical setting (or what I call a “regime”) cannot be reduced to a special case of inference from large-sample statistics. Historical judgment is at least partially incommensurable with the idea of probability, cases are often important precisely because they are not countable, and scientific rigor may demand avoiding quantification for part of the social scientist's approach.
carpenter_-_just_how_much_of_history_is_countable_psq_2023.pdf
Carpenter D. Agenda Democracy. Annual Review of Political Science. 2023;26 :193-212. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The study of agenda setting has become curiously disconnected from democratic theory and democratization. Following Schattschneider, Dahl, and recent developments in political theory, I call for its reintegration in theoretical and empirical realms. The concept of agenda democracy allows for better understanding of contests over institutions, significant historical-institutional transformations, the study of inequality and its mechanisms of generation and maintenance, and the building and undermining of democracy. Agenda democracy requires a broad understanding of agendas (beyond a mere menu of final policy choices), recognizes that many democratic regimes have institutions that systematically render agendas nondemocratic, and compels us to look at the interstices of institutions and society (party transformation, petition and grievance mechanisms, advocacy campaigns, initiatives to expand what I call the shortlist of the possible) for moments of significant change. Agenda democracy compels the examination of democratizing agenda restrictions, the study of conservative organizations in politics, and the consideration of decomposing the term “movement.”

agenda_democracy_final_published_2023_-_annurev-polisci-051921-102533-2_copy.pdf
2022
Strategic Realism, not Optimism: Bayesian and Indigenous Perspectives on the Democratizing Petition. Social Science History. 2022. Publisher's Version strategic-realism-not-optimism-bayesian-and-indigenous-perspectives-on-the-democratizing-petition.pdf
Strategic Realism, not Optimism: Bayesian and Indigenous Perspectives on the Democratizing Petition. Social Science History. 2022. Publisher's Version strategic-realism-not-optimism-bayesian-and-indigenous-perspectives-on-the-democratizing-petition.pdf
Benjamin Schneer, Tobias Resch MBDC. The Popular Origins of Legislative Jurisdictions: Petitions and Standing Committee Formation in Colonial Virginia and the Early U.S. House. Journal of Politics. 2022;84 (3) :1727-1745. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Committee formation in early American legislatures happened when those assemblies were inundated with petitions, a relationship unexamined in institutional political science. We develop a model where a floor creates committees to respond to topic-specific petitions, predicting committee creation when petitions (1) are topically specific, (2) are spread across constituencies, and (3) have complex subject matter, and predicting committee appointments from petition-heavy constituencies. Analysis of case studies and with two original datasets – petitions sent to the Virginia House of Burgesses from 1766 to 1769, and over 100,000 petitions sent to Congress and recorded in the House Journal (1789-1875) – shows petitions, their complexity and their geographic dispersion predict committee creation. Our theoretical argument embeds asset specificity in legislative institutions, and helps reinterpret the entropy of political agendas and the origins of standing committees in American legislatures.
commpet_web.pdf
2020
Blackhawk M, Carpenter D, Resch T, Schneer B. Congressional Representation by Petition: Assessing the Voices of the Voteless in a Comprehensive New Database, 1789–1949. Legislative Studies Quarterly. 2020. Publisher's VersionAbstract
For much of American political history, the electoral franchise was restricted to only a portion of the population. By contrast, the right to petition was considered universal and enshrined in the First Amendment, giving voice to the voteless. Petitioning thus served as a fundamental mechanism of representation. Still, fundamental questions remain: How was petitioning used, how did Congress respond to petitions, and did the petition allow for partial representation of the marginalized and unenfranchised? We address these questions by analyzing the Congressional Petitions Database (CPD), an original endeavor tracking virtually every petition introduced to Congress from 1789 to 1949. Our analyses document how (1) two important groups of unenfranchised constituents—Native Americans and women—petitioned regularly and (2) Congress's initial treatment of Natives' and women's petitions was similar to that of all others, thus offering systematic evidence highlighting the petition's role as a mechanism for representation among otherwise unenfranchised groups.
congressrepbypetition_lsqforpublication20200721.pdf
Blackhawk M, Carpenter D, Resch T, Schneer B. The Contours of American Congressional Petitioning, 1789-1949: A New Database. 2020.Abstract
We introduce the Congressional Petitions Database (CPD), an original endeavor tracking virtually
every petition introduced to Congress from 1789 to 1949. Exploiting Congress’s ritual reading of
petition prayers, we leverage a supervised machine learning algorithm to create a database comprising
over 537,000 petitions. For each petition we code the prayer and its subject matter, geographic origin,
initial disposition and other information. Initial analyses suggest that (1) per-capita petitioning peaked
nationwide in the mid- and late-nineteenth century and remained at higher levels until World War I,
declining appreciably thereafter; (2) the South exhibits lower petitioning from 1802 to 1870 (but not
before 1800), cratering in the 1840s through 1860s and again later in the Jim Crow Era; and (3) the
unenfranchised petitioned regularly and their petitions were afforded process similar to all others. The
CPD will be useful for studies of legislative development, social movements, interest group advocacy, federalism and sectionalism.
contours.pdf
2019
Carpenter D. La réputation organisationnelle de l’État fédéral dans un contexte général de malaise politique. Revue française d’administration publique. 2019;170 (2) :385-396. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Après un demi-siècle de critique presque continuelle, les organes qui composent l’État fédéral aux États-Unis souffrent aujourd’hui d’un profond malaise en termes de réputation. La loyauté des citoyens, les marques de respect social, l’attractivité en ce qui concerne le recrutement de jeunes fonctionnaires, tous ces éléments positifs de la relation des Américains à l’État fédéral semblent disparaitre. En même temps, on constate que certaines agences fédérales jouissent d’une meilleure réputation que d’autres. Pendant un moment, au cours de la crise financière et économique de 2007-2008, certaines d’entre elles ont même bénéficié d’un regain de popularité. Quelles leçons pouvons-nous tirer de cette évolution ? En ce qui concerne la période actuelle, faut-il s’attendre à une renaissance des attentes du citoyen à leur égard, ou même une réaction du deep state face aux critiques des tenants de M. Bannon et du Président Trump ? Ou bien la société américaine est-elle condamnée à la constante détérioration de l’image des organisations qui composent l’État fédéral ? Le présent article montre que la défiance des citoyens américains à l’encontre de l’État est profondément ancrée dans une société marquée par les clivages partisans et une longue tradition de dénigrement.
carpenter-rfap20190818preprint.pdf
Carpenter D, Brossard D. L’éruption patriote: The Revolt against Dalhousie and the Petitioning Explosion in Nineteenth-Century French Canada. Social Science History. 2019;43 :453-485. Publisher's VersionAbstract

As much as any other site in the nineteenth century, Francophone Lower Canada saw immense waves of popular petitioning, with petitions against British colonial administration attracting tens of thousands of signatures in the 1820s. The petition against Governor Dalhousie of 1827–28 attracted more than 87,000 names, making it one of the largest mass petitions of the Atlantic world on a per-capita scale for its time. We draw upon new archival evidence that shows the force of local organization in the petition mobilization, and combine this with statistical analyses of a new sample of 1,864 names from the anti-Dalhousie signatory list. We conclude that the Lower Canadian petitioning surge stemmed from emergent linguistic nationalism, expectations of parliamentary democracy, and the mobilization and alliance-building efforts of Patriote leaders in the French-Canadian republican movement. As elsewhere in the nineteenth-century Atlantic, the anti-Dalhousie effort shows social movements harnessing petitions to recruit, mobilize, and build cross-cultural alliances.

leruption_patriote_the_revolt_against_dalhousie_and_the_petitioning_explosion_in_nineteenthcentury_french_canada.pdf
Pham-Kanter G, Carpenter D LMLM. U.S. Nationwide Disclosure of Industry Payments and Public Trust in Physicians. Journal of the American Medical Association – JAMA Network Open. 2019. Publisher's Version kanter_2019_oi_190093.pdf
Pham-Kanter G, Carpenter D, Lehmann L, Mello M. Effect of the Public Disclosure of Industry Payments Information on Patients: Results from a Population-Based Natural Experiment. British Medical Journal – BMJ Open. 2019. Publisher's Version kantercarpenteretalbmjopen2019.pdf
2018
Carpenter D, Resch T PSTZBN. Suffrage Petitioning as Formative Practice: American Women Presage and Prepare for the Vote, 1870-1920. Studies in American Political Development . 2018;32 (1) :24-48. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The American woman suffrage movement remade the U.S. Constitution and effected the broadest expansion of voting eligibility in the nation's history. Yet it did more than change laws and citizenship. It also plausibly shaped participatory patterns before and after the winning of voting rights for women. Drawing upon the idea of formative practice and reporting on a range of historical materials—including an original data set of 2,157 petitions sent to the U.S. Congress from 1874 to 1920 concerning women's voting rights—we focus on woman suffrage petitioning as both presaging the practice of voting and, in a sense, preparing tens of thousands of women for that activity. Our analyses reveal that, before 1920, suffrage petitioning activity was heightened in general and midterm election years (especially among Republican-leaning constituencies), suffrage petitioning both enabled and reflected organization in critical western states, and that post-suffrage women's turnout was immediately and significantly higher in states with greater pre-suffrage petitioning (controlling for a range of political, organizational, and demographic variables). In its claims, symbolism, habits, and temporality, suffrage petitioning differed from other petitioning in American political development and marked a formative practice for women on their way to voting.

Nall C, Schneer B CD. Paths of Recruitment: Rational Social Prospecting in Petition Canvassing. American Journal of Political Science. 2018;62 (1) :192-209. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Petition canvassers are political recruiters. Building upon the rational prospector model, we theorize that rational recruiting strategies are dynamic (Bayesian and time‐conscious), spatial (constrained by geography), and social (conditioned on relations between canvasser and prospect). Our theory predicts that canvassers will exhibit homophily in their canvassing preferences and will alternate between “door‐to‐door” and “attractor” (working in a central location) strategies based upon systematic geographical variation. They will adjust their strategies midstream (mid‐petition) based upon experience. Introducing methods to analyze canvassing data, we test these hypotheses on geocoded signatory lists from two petition drives—a 2005–6 anti–Iraq War initiative in Wisconsin and an 1839 antislavery campaign in New York City. Canvassers in these campaigns exhibited homophily to the point of following geographically and politically “inefficient” paths. In the aggregate, these patterns may exacerbate political inequality, limiting political involvement of the poorer and less educated.
nall_et_al-2018-american_journal_of_political_science.pdf

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