Publications

Working Paper
Carpenter D. Authoritarian Electoral College Underpopulation: Historical Reflections and a Possible Countermove under Article I, Section 5. Working Paper.Abstract

The possibility of a contested presidential election in November 2020 to January 2021 is real, and one of the most common scenarios (discussed in a widely shared Newsweek article and by the legal scholar Lawrence Lessig) involves states refusing to certify or report slates of electors to the Electoral College with the result (and, in all likelihood, the intent) of throwing the election to the House of Representatives. I call this scenario authoritarian Electoral College underpopulation.

In this memorandum, I advance two points. First, neither Article II nor the Twelfth Amendment was designed for such scenarios, being rather intended for situations where multi-candidate or multiparty dynamics lead to no single candidate gaining a majority in the College (as occurred in 1800 and in 1824). Absent a multi-candidate scenario where no third candidate materializes, or absent an Electoral College tie, no contingent vote of the House should occur, because states should faithfully report their Electoral College slates in keeping with republican principles, that is, state popular majorities.

Second, I then argue that the House of Representatives could respond by reconfiguring its members using its powers under Article I, Section 5, with a combination of selective delegation seating or selective delegation reconstitution, to produce in the House contingent vote the result that would have been produced by a legitimate (republican) Electoral College vote and/or the national popular vote.

While Article I, Section 5 powers are subject to abuse, they could be used under extreme circumstances to rectify unrepublican actions among state authorities. Indeed, some such Section 5 powers have been used before in a similar corrective manner, to counter unrepublican actions at the state level. While reform of our Electoral College institutions is a more desirable “first-best” aspiration, this argument points to ways of protecting the republican principle in near-term presidential elections.

constitutionalcountermove_memo20200801.pdf
Blackhawk M, Carpenter D, Resch T, Schneer B. The Contours of American Congressional Petitioning, 1789-1949: A New Database . Working Paper.Abstract
We introduce the Congressional Petitions Database (CPD), an original endeavor tracking virtually
every petition introduced to Congress from 1789 to 1949. Exploiting Congress’s ritual reading of
petition prayers, we leverage a supervised machine learning algorithm to create a database comprising
over 537,000 petitions. For each petition we code the prayer and its subject matter, geographic origin,
initial disposition and other information. Initial analyses suggest that (1) per-capita petitioning peaked
nationwide in the mid- and late-nineteenth century and remained at higher levels until World War I,
declining appreciably thereafter; (2) the South exhibits lower petitioning from 1802 to 1870 (but not
before 1800), cratering in the 1840s through 1860s and again later in the Jim Crow Era; and (3) the
unenfranchised petitioned regularly and their petitions were afforded process similar to all others. The
CPD will be useful for studies of legislative development, social movements, interest group advocacy, federalism and sectionalism.
contours.pdf
Forthcoming
Carpenter D. The Democracy of Petitions: Popular Politics in Transformation, 1790-1870. Cambridge, Mass. Harvard University Press; Forthcoming.
2019
Carpenter D. La réputation organisationnelle de l’État fédéral dans un contexte général de malaise politique. Revue française d’administration publique [Internet]. 2019;170 (2) :385-396. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Après un demi-siècle de critique presque continuelle, les organes qui composent l’État fédéral aux États-Unis souffrent aujourd’hui d’un profond malaise en termes de réputation. La loyauté des citoyens, les marques de respect social, l’attractivité en ce qui concerne le recrutement de jeunes fonctionnaires, tous ces éléments positifs de la relation des Américains à l’État fédéral semblent disparaitre. En même temps, on constate que certaines agences fédérales jouissent d’une meilleure réputation que d’autres. Pendant un moment, au cours de la crise financière et économique de 2007-2008, certaines d’entre elles ont même bénéficié d’un regain de popularité. Quelles leçons pouvons-nous tirer de cette évolution ? En ce qui concerne la période actuelle, faut-il s’attendre à une renaissance des attentes du citoyen à leur égard, ou même une réaction du deep state face aux critiques des tenants de M. Bannon et du Président Trump ? Ou bien la société américaine est-elle condamnée à la constante détérioration de l’image des organisations qui composent l’État fédéral ? Le présent article montre que la défiance des citoyens américains à l’encontre de l’État est profondément ancrée dans une société marquée par les clivages partisans et une longue tradition de dénigrement.
carpenter-rfap20190818preprint.pdf
Carpenter D, Brossard D. L’éruption patriote: The Revolt against Dalhousie and the Petitioning Explosion in Nineteenth-Century French Canada. Social Science History [Internet]. 2019;43 :453-485. Publisher's VersionAbstract

As much as any other site in the nineteenth century, Francophone Lower Canada saw immense waves of popular petitioning, with petitions against British colonial administration attracting tens of thousands of signatures in the 1820s. The petition against Governor Dalhousie of 1827–28 attracted more than 87,000 names, making it one of the largest mass petitions of the Atlantic world on a per-capita scale for its time. We draw upon new archival evidence that shows the force of local organization in the petition mobilization, and combine this with statistical analyses of a new sample of 1,864 names from the anti-Dalhousie signatory list. We conclude that the Lower Canadian petitioning surge stemmed from emergent linguistic nationalism, expectations of parliamentary democracy, and the mobilization and alliance-building efforts of Patriote leaders in the French-Canadian republican movement. As elsewhere in the nineteenth-century Atlantic, the anti-Dalhousie effort shows social movements harnessing petitions to recruit, mobilize, and build cross-cultural alliances.

leruption_patriote_the_revolt_against_dalhousie_and_the_petitioning_explosion_in_nineteenthcentury_french_canada.pdf
Pham-Kanter G, Carpenter D LMLM. U.S. Nationwide Disclosure of Industry Payments and Public Trust in Physicians. Journal of the American Medical Association – JAMA Network Open [Internet]. 2019. Publisher's Version kanter_2019_oi_190093.pdf
Pham-Kanter G, Carpenter D, Lehmann L, Mello M. Effect of the Public Disclosure of Industry Payments Information on Patients: Results from a Population-Based Natural Experiment. British Medical Journal – BMJ Open [Internet]. 2019. Publisher's Version kantercarpenteretalbmjopen2019.pdf
2018
Carpenter D, Resch T PSTZBN. Suffrage Petitioning as Formative Practice: American Women Presage and Prepare for the Vote, 1870-1920. Studies in American Political Development [Internet]. 2018;32 (1) :24-48. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The American woman suffrage movement remade the U.S. Constitution and effected the broadest expansion of voting eligibility in the nation's history. Yet it did more than change laws and citizenship. It also plausibly shaped participatory patterns before and after the winning of voting rights for women. Drawing upon the idea of formative practice and reporting on a range of historical materials—including an original data set of 2,157 petitions sent to the U.S. Congress from 1874 to 1920 concerning women's voting rights—we focus on woman suffrage petitioning as both presaging the practice of voting and, in a sense, preparing tens of thousands of women for that activity. Our analyses reveal that, before 1920, suffrage petitioning activity was heightened in general and midterm election years (especially among Republican-leaning constituencies), suffrage petitioning both enabled and reflected organization in critical western states, and that post-suffrage women's turnout was immediately and significantly higher in states with greater pre-suffrage petitioning (controlling for a range of political, organizational, and demographic variables). In its claims, symbolism, habits, and temporality, suffrage petitioning differed from other petitioning in American political development and marked a formative practice for women on their way to voting.

Nall C, Schneer B CD. Paths of Recruitment: Rational Social Prospecting in Petition Canvassing. American Journal of Political Science [Internet]. 2018;62 (1) :192-209. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Petition canvassers are political recruiters. Building upon the rational prospector model, we theorize that rational recruiting strategies are dynamic (Bayesian and time‐conscious), spatial (constrained by geography), and social (conditioned on relations between canvasser and prospect). Our theory predicts that canvassers will exhibit homophily in their canvassing preferences and will alternate between “door‐to‐door” and “attractor” (working in a central location) strategies based upon systematic geographical variation. They will adjust their strategies midstream (mid‐petition) based upon experience. Introducing methods to analyze canvassing data, we test these hypotheses on geocoded signatory lists from two petition drives—a 2005–6 anti–Iraq War initiative in Wisconsin and an 1839 antislavery campaign in New York City. Canvassers in these campaigns exhibited homophily to the point of following geographically and politically “inefficient” paths. In the aggregate, these patterns may exacerbate political inequality, limiting political involvement of the poorer and less educated.
nall_et_al-2018-american_journal_of_political_science.pdf
2016
D C. Internal Governance of Agencies: The Sieve, the Shove, the Show. Harvard Law Review. 2016.
Carpenter D. Recruitment by Petition: American Abolitionism, French Protestantism, English Suppression. Perspectives on Politics [Internet]. 2016;14 (3) :700-723. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Why do petitions flourish when they are often denied if not ignored by the sovereigns who receive them? When activists seek to build political organizations in network-rich but information-poor environments, petitioning as institutional technology facilitates recruitment. A petition’s signatory list identifies and locates individuals sympathetic to its prayer and expresses to other citizens who and how many agree with the prayer. Three historical moments—the explosion of antislavery petitioning in the antebellum United States, the emergence of Protestantism in sixteenth-century France, and England’s suppression of petitioning after the Restoration Settlement of 1660—provide vivid demonstrations of the theory. A recruitment-based theory implies that petition drives mobilize as much as they express, that well-established groups and parties petition less frequently, and that the most important readers of a petition are those asked to sign it. The petition’s recruitment function complements, but also transforms, its function of messaging the sovereign. Contemporary digital petitioning both routinizes and takes its force from the petition’s embedded recruitment technology.
Hwang TJ, Carpenter D LJCWFKASBJ. Failure of Investigational Drugs in Late-Stage Clinical Development and Publication of Trial Results. JAMA-Internal Medicine. 2016.
D C. Sovereignty and Survivance – The Pathways of Native Politics. Perspectives on Politics. 2016;14 (4).
2015
Carpenter D KG. Transactional Authority and Bureaucratic Politics. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory. 2015;25 (1).
Hwang TJ, Carpenter D KAS. Paying for Innovation: Reimbursement Incentives for Novel Antibiotics. Science Translational Medicine. 2015.

Pages